[Ips-wsgr] IPS Weekly Solar and Geophysical Report (11 April 03)

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS WEEKLY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT 
ISSUED ON 11 APRIL 2003, BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES,
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE

1. SUMMARY (04 APRIL - 10 APRIL)
Date     04    05    06    07    08    09    10
10cm    153   137   126   116   112   109   103
AFr      13    16     6     4    17    14 ( 20)
Aaus     19    17     6     6    21    21 ( 19)
T        94    93    95   102    97    89    90

Solar:        Solar flare activity
Geomagnetic:  Geomagnetic activity observed for Australian Region.
Frequencies:  Australian Ionospheric F2 critical frequencies

04 Apr 
Solar:        moderate, with an M1 at 2019UT, and an M2 at 2019UT
Geomagnetic:  Mostly unsettled to active. Isolated minor storm 
              periods observed. 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Enhanced by 45% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Enhanced by 40% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 20% over the UT day with
      periods of depressions and degradations.

05 Apr 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Active 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day
      with periods of mild to moderate depressions
      and degradations. 

06 Apr 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day with
      periods of depressions and degradations. 

07 Apr 
Solar:        low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values with
      periods of slight enhancements and
      minror to mild depressions and degradations. 

08 Apr 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Minor Storm 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day
      with periods of depressions and degradations. 

09 Apr 
Solar:        moderate, with an M2/1F at 2329UT
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Minor Storm 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Enhanced by 40% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.

10 Apr 
Solar:        moderate, with an  M2/1F at 2329UT 
Geomagnetic:  Unsettled to Active 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


COMMENT: 
Activity on 04-05 was due to coronal hole. Activity on 08-09 Apr 
was due to weak mass ejection and coronal hole effects.
There are now two large coronal holes on opposite sides of
the sun producing two extended periods of mild to moderate
activity.

 
2. FORECAST (11 APRIL - 17 APRIL)
Solar: Moderate.

Geomagnetic:  Mostly Unsettled to Active with minor storm intervals possible
	      due to broad coronal hole.

Frequencies:  depressed 15 to 20% after local dawn southern Aus/NZ region
	      only. Northern region mUFs rexpected to remain near normal.

PLEASE NOTE: 
At this time of the solar cycle, space weather conditions
are frequently determined by short timescale events, not
able to be forecasted a week in advance.

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