[Ips-wsgr] IPS Weekly Solar and Geophysical Report (18 October 02)

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS WEEKLY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT 
ISSUED ON 18 OCTOBER 2002, BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES,
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE

1. SUMMARY (11 OCTOBER - 17 OCTOBER)
Date     11    12    13    14    15    16    17
10cm    179   180   179   181   177   183   179
AFr       5     6     6    13    13     9 ( 10)
Aaus      8     4     4    14    19    12 ( 12)
T       140   149   153   141    93    97   122

Solar:        Solar flare activity
Geomagnetic:  Geomagnetic activity observed for Australian Region.
Frequencies:  Australian Ionospheric F2 critical frequencies

11 Oct 
Solar:        low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
      Enhanced by 15% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Depressed 20-30% at times, otherwise near predicted monthly values.

12 Oct 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet 
Frequencies:  
10 to 30% above predicted monthly values
13 Oct 
Solar:        moderate, with an M2/SF at 0010UT
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 
Frequencies:  
15 to 30% above predicted monthly values


14 Oct 
Solar:        moderate, with an M2/SF at 0010UT
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Active 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced 20-30% over UT day.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced 20-30% over UT day.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 10-20% during first half UT day.
      Slightly below predicted monthly values second half UT
      day.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Isolated depressions of 10-30%.

15 Oct 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Unsettled to Active 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 15-30% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Depressed 10-20% below predicted monthly values.

16 Oct 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Active 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 20-30% over UT day.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Depressed by 20-30% after local dawn, persisting into
      local day in S. Aust region.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Isolated depressions, otherwise near predicted monthly 
      values over the UT day.

17 Oct 
Solar:        low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to unsettled 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

COMMENT: Mild to moderate disturbance observed 14-15 Oct associated
with interval of southward interplanetary magnetic field, and possible
weak recurrent factors.
 
2. FORECAST (18 OCTOBER - 24 OCTOBER)
Solar: Low, isolated low level M class events possible.

Geomagnetic:  Mostly Quiet to Unsettled with active intervals possible
	      on 18 Oct.

Frequencies:  MUFs near normal. 

PEASE NOTE: 
At this time of the solar cycle, space weather conditions
are frequently determined by short timescale events, not
able to be forecasted a week in advance.

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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