[Ips-wsgr] IPS Weekly Solar and Geophysical Report (25 October 02)

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS WEEKLY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT 
ISSUED ON 25 OCTOBER 2002, BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES,
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE

1. SUMMARY (18 OCTOBER - 24 OCTOBER)
Date     18    19    20    21    22    23    24
10cm    173   180   180   183   169   164   160
AFr       9     9     8     7    10     6 ( 30)
Aaus     13    16     9     7    12     9 ( 28)
T       141   136   115   143   133   113   112

Solar:        Solar flare activity
Geomagnetic:  Geomagnetic activity observed for Australian Region.
Frequencies:  Australian Ionospheric F2 critical frequencies

18 Oct 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Active 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 65% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15-20%.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.

19 Oct 
Solar:        low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 25-40%.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15-25%.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 20%.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

20 Oct 
Solar:        moderate, with an M1/1F at 0045UT, an M1/2N at 
              0339UT, an M1/1N at 0514UT, and an M1/1B at 1428UT
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15-35%.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20-30%.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

21 Oct 
Solar:        low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 20-50%.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15-30%.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

22 Oct 
Solar:        moderate, with an M1/SF at 1535UT
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Active 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 20-50%.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15%.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15-20%.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.

23 Oct 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by upto 20% with some periods of
      depressions and degradations.

24 Oct 
Solar:        low
Geomagnetic:  Unsettled to Minor Storm 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


COMMENT: An earlier than expected rise in the geomagnetic 
activity to minor storm level was observed late on 24 Oct 
(UT day). This seems to have been due to the coronal hole
effect and a sustained period of Bz staying southwards.
Depressions in MUFs have been observed in the high latitude
regions early 25 October (after local dawn) due to this 
rise in the geomagnetic activity. MUFs did not show any 
significant variation due to this activity at low latitudes. 
This effect is expected to continue for the next 2 days and 
is expected to decline gradually thereafter.

2. FORECAST (25 OCTOBER - 31 OCTOBER)
Solar: Low to moderate

Geomagnetic:  Mostly Unsettled to Active with Active to
              Minor storm intervals possible.

Frequencies:  Depressions from 5 to 15% may be observed on 
mid- to high latitude circuits- especially during the first 
half of the period. MUFs are expected to remain mostly normal
for most of the period on low latitudes. SWFs probable early 
in week.

PEASE NOTE: 
At this time of the solar cycle, space weather conditions
are frequently determined by short timescale events, not
able to be forecasted a week in advance.

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