[Ips-wsgr] IPS Weekly Solar and Geophysical Report (29 November 02)

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS WEEKLY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT 
ISSUED ON 29 NOVEMBER 2002, BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES,
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE

1. SUMMARY (22 NOVEMBER - 28 NOVEMBER)
Date     22    23    24    25    26    27    28
10cm    149   148   146   137   142   143   140
AFr      17    10     8    14     6    13 ( 13)
Aaus     18    14    14    15     9    21 ( 15)
T       120   104   105   102   103   103    80

Solar:        Solar flare activity
Geomagnetic:  Geomagnetic activity observed for Australian Region.
Frequencies:  Australian Ionospheric F2 critical frequencies

22 Nov 
Solar:        low
Geomagnetic:  Unsettled to Active 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 30% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.

23 Nov 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.

24 Nov 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
      15% enhanced after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      some sites 15% depressed after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

25 Nov 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Unsettled to Active 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

26 Nov 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 20-30% during local day,
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed 15-20% local day.
      Mostly near predicted monthly values local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      15% depressed to near predicted monthly 
      values over the UT day.  Spread F observed.

27 Nov 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Minor Storm 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day
      with periods of degradations and depressions.

28 Nov 
Solar:        low
Geomagnetic:  Mostly unsettled. 

Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day with 
      periods of degradations and depressions.
 
2. FORECAST (29 NOVEMBER - 05 DECEMBER)
Solar: Low to moderate

Geomagnetic:  Mostly quiet to unsettled early in the week, 
unsettled to active from 30 November to 03 December with 
possibility of going upto minor storm level, declining to 
unsettled to quiet levels towards the end of the period. 

Frequencies:  Periods of depressions from 5 to 20 % expected 
from 30 November to 03 December, otherwise MUFs near normal. 
SWFs possible.

PEASE NOTE: 
At this time of the solar cycle, space weather conditions
are frequently determined by short timescale events, not
able to be forecasted a week in advance.

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                       | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA     | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
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