[Ips-wsgr] IPS Weekly Solar and Geophysical Report (22 November 02)

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS WEEKLY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT 
ISSUED ON 22 NOVEMBER 2002, BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES,
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE

1. SUMMARY (15 NOVEMBER - 21 NOVEMBER)
Date     15    16    17    18    19    20    21
10cm    198   199   185   179   168   159   151
AFr       8     3     5    11    12    13 ( 35)
Aaus     12     7     8    11    13    19 ( 38)
T       144   127   140   127    53    84    61

Solar:        Solar flare activity
Geomagnetic:  Geomagnetic activity observed for Australian Region.
Frequencies:  Australian Ionospheric F2 critical frequencies

15 Nov 
Solar:        moderate, with an M2 at 0124UT
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 
Frequencies:  
Near predicted monthly values to enhanced at all stations.

16 Nov 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 
Frequencies:  
Mostly near predicted monthly values to enhanced at all
stations.

17 Nov 
Solar:        moderate, with an M2/SF at 1454UT
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 
Frequencies:  
10 to 20% above predicted monthly values

18 Nov 
Solar:        high, with an M7.4/1F at 0208UT
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Isolated depressions of 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Depressed 10 to 20% after local dawn. 

19 Nov 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 
Frequencies:  
20 to 30% below predicted monthly values

20 Nov 
Solar:        moderate, with an M1/SN at 1807UT
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Active 
A weak (13nT) impulse was observed in the IPS magnetomter 
data at 1108UT on 20 Nov.
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
      Some sites 20% depressed after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Spread F observed.

21 Nov 
Solar:        low
Geomagnetic:  Unsettled to Major Storm 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
 
2. FORECAST (22 NOVEMBER - 28 NOVEMBER)
Solar: Low to Moderate

Geomagnetic:  Mostly Unsettled, with Active to Minor storm 
              intervals possible 22-23 Nov.

Frequencies:  depressed 15 to 20% on 22-23Nov, 
              otherwise MUFs near normal. SWFs possible.

PEASE NOTE: 
At this time of the solar cycle, space weather conditions
are frequently determined by short timescale events, not
able to be forecasted a week in advance.

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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