[Ips-wsgr] IPS Weekly Solar and Geophysical Report (30 November 01)

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS WEEKLY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT 
ISSUED ON 30 NOVEMBER 2001, BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES,
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE

1. SUMMARY (23 NOVEMBER - 29 NOVEMBER)
Date     23    24    25    26    27    28    29
10cm    177   173   170   175   190   199   216
AFr      11    76     6     4     1     3 (  4)
Aaus     15   127    17     6     6     6 (  5)
T       119    73    66   152   185   187   180

Solar:        Solar flare activity
Geomagnetic:  Geomagnetic activity observed for Australian Region.
Frequencies:  Australian Ionospheric F2 critical frequencies

23 Nov 
Solar:        low
Geomagnetic:  Unsettled 

Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% to near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 15% to near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Absorption observed for much of the UT day.


24 Nov 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Unsettled to Severe Storm Levels 
A weak (35nT) impulse was observed in the IPS magnetomter data at 0501UT
on 24 Nov, and a strong (102nT) impulse was observed at 0556UT on 24 Nov.
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.


25 Nov 
Solar:        high, with an X1.1 at 0951UT
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Active 
A weak (20nT) impulse was observed in the IPS magnetomter data at
0535UT on 25 Nov.
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Northern Australian Region:
      10-15% depressed to near predicted monthly values,
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 15-30% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.


26 Nov 
Solar:        low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 

Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.


27 Nov 
Solar:        moderate, with an M2/1F at 2121UT
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 

Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20-35%.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15-30%.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Ehanced by 15%.


28 Nov 
Solar:        high, with an M6.9/1B at 1635UT
Geomagnetic:  Quiet 

Frequencies:  
Normal to enhanced at all stations.


29 Nov 
Solar:        high, with an  M5/1N at 1036UT , and an  M1/SF at 0149UT
Geomagnetic:  Quiet 

Frequencies:  
Normal to enhanced at all stations.


 
2. FORECAST (30 NOVEMBER - 06 DECEMBER)
Solar: Moderate to high.

Geomagnetic:  
            30 Nov: Quiet
	    1 Dec: Unsettled to active, with possible minor storm
		   periods.
            2 Dec: Unsettled to active.
	    3-6 Dec: Mostly quiet to unsettled.

Frequencies:  Depressed 5 to 15% on 1-2 Dec, otherwise MUFs mostly
near normal. SWFs probable.

PEASE NOTE: 
At this time of the solar cycle, space weather conditions
are frequently determined by short timescale events, not
able to be forecasted a week in advance.

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