[Ips-wsgr] IPS Weekly Solar and Geophysical Report (23 November 01)

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS WEEKLY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT 
ISSUED ON 23 NOVEMBER 2001, BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES,
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE

1. SUMMARY (16 NOVEMBER - 22 NOVEMBER)
Date     16    17    18    19    20    21    22
10cm    202   199   188   191   185   184   190
AFr       4     9     8    10     8     2 (  8)
Aaus     11    14    10    19     8     5 ( 13)
T       160   166   157   121   143   186   169

Solar:        Solar flare activity
Geomagnetic:  Geomagnetic activity observed for Australian Region.
Frequencies:  Australian Ionospheric F2 critical frequencies

16 Nov 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20-40% local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 20%.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


17 Nov 
Solar:        moderate, with an M2/1N at 0525UT
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Active 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15-30%.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 20%.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


18 Nov 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15-20%.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
      Some absorption observed.


19 Nov 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Unsettled to Active 
A weak (16nT) impulse was observed in the IPS magnetomter data at 1815UT on 19
Nov.
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
      Absorption observed late in UT day.


20 Nov 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


21 Nov 
Solar:        low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 20-25%.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


22 Nov 
Solar:        high, with an   M1.3 at 1708UT , an   M4.1 at 2036UT , and an  
X1.0 at 2332UT
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Active 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15-30%.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 20-25%.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

COMMENT:The M4 was from a region to the extreme south-west of the
solar disk. The X1 originated from a region also in the
south-west quadrant but closer to the centre of the disk.
 
2. FORECAST (23 NOVEMBER - 29 NOVEMBER)
Solar: Moderate to high.

Geomagnetic:  Active to minor storm levels expected 24-25 Nov following M4. 
Storm levels intervals expected 25-26 Nov follwoing X1 event. Quiet to
unsettled levels expected 27-29 Nov.

Frequencies:  depressed 15% briefly after local dawn on 24-Nov, depressed 
30-40% on 25/26-Nov, otherwise MUFs near normal. 
SWFs probable early in week. Polar egion HF communications currently 
degraded due to proton event from recent flare activity.

PEASE NOTE: 
At this time of the solar cycle, space weather conditions
are frequently determined by short timescale events, not
able to be forecasted a week in advance.

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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