[Ips-wsgr] IPS Weekly Solar and Geophysical Report (14 December 01)

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS WEEKLY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT 
ISSUED ON 14 DECEMBER 2001, BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES,
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE

1. SUMMARY (07 DECEMBER - 13 DECEMBER)
Date     07    08    09    10    11    12    13
10cm    226   221   224   219   221   237   220
AFr       7     7     1     3     3     8 (  6)
Aaus     14     5     5     8     6    14 (  6)
T       130   120   130   166   149   158   132

Solar:        Solar flare activity
Geomagnetic:  Geomagnetic activity observed for Australian Region.
Frequencies:  Australian Ionospheric F2 critical frequencies

07 Dec 
Solar:        low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to unsettled 

Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Enhanced by 20% during local night.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Mostly near predicted monthly values,
     Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Enhanced by 20% during local night.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
     Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


08 Dec 
Solar:        moderate, with an M3 at 0634UT
Geomagnetic:  Quiet 

Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Enhanced by 15% during local night.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Depressed by 15% during local day,
     Near predicted monthly values during local night.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Enhanced by 25% during local night.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
     Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.


09 Dec 
Solar:        low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet 

Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Enhanced by 25% during local night.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Near predicted monthly values.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Enhanced by 25% during local night.
     Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
     Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


10 Dec 
Solar:        low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 

Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Enhanced by 15% during local night.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Enhanced by 20% during local night.
     Enhanced by 15% after local dawn.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Enhanced by 15% during local day,
     Enhanced by 25% during local night.
     Enhanced by 15% after local dawn.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
     Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.


11 Dec 
Solar:        high, with an X2.8/SF at 0808UT, and an M1/2N at 1451UT
Geomagnetic:  Quiet 

Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Enhanced by 15% during local night.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Enhanced by 15% during local night.
     Depressed by 40% after local dawn.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Enhanced by 25% during local night.
     Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
     Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.


12 Dec 
Solar:        high, with an M3/1N at 1911UT, an M5.6 at 2200UT, 
	      and an M4/1F at 2322UT
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 

Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 60% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.


13 Dec 
Solar:        high, with an M5.1 at 2322UT , an M2.1 at 0640UT , an X6.4
              at 1430UT , an M1.0 at 1803UT , and an M1.5 at 2308UT
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 

Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


 
2. FORECAST (14 DECEMBER - 20 DECEMBER)
Solar: Moderate

Geomagnetic:  Mostly Quiet with active intervals possible.

Frequencies:  depressed 15 to 20% on 15-Dec, depressed 15 to 20% on 16-Dec, 
otherwise MUFs near normal. SWFs probable early in week.

PEASE NOTE: 
At this time of the solar cycle, space weather conditions
are frequently determined by short timescale events, not
able to be forecasted a week in advance.

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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