[Ips-wsgr] IPS Weekly Solar and Geophysical Report (27 October 00)

[Regional Warning Centre]

SUBJ: IPS WEEKLY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT 
ISSUED ON 27 OCTOBER 2000, BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES,
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE

1. SUMMARY (20 OCTOBER - 26 OCTOBER)
Date     20    21    22    23    24    25    26
10cm    161   158   160   167   159   164   171
AFr       2     5     7    13    10     9 ( 10)
Aaus      2     2    13    10    10     6 (  6)
T       123   139   150   140   145   131   138

Solar:        Solar flare activity
Geomagnetic:  Geomagnetic activity observed for Australian Region.
Frequencies:  Australian Ionospheric F2 critical frequencies

20 Oct 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed 15% to Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
      Spread F observed.


21 Oct 
Solar:        moderate, with an M3/1N at 1831UT
Geomagnetic:  Quiet 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.


22 Oct 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Active 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
      Spread F observed.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
      Spread F observed.


23 Oct 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Range spread and Spread F observed 15-19 UT.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
      Spread F observed local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
      Spread F throughout the UT day.


24 Oct 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Active 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Spread F observed, local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
      Spread F observed.


25 Oct 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 20 to 30% overnight,
      Mostly near predicted monthly values during the day,
   Northern Australian Region:
      Slightly enhanced overnight,
      Mostly near predicted monthly values during the day,
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 10 to 20% during the day,
      Mostly near predicted monthly values overnight,
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


26 Oct 
Solar:        low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 10 to 20% during local night,
      Mostly near predicted monthly values the rest of day,
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 5 to 15% during day light hours,
      Enhanced by 5 to 30% during local night,
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 5 to 10% during day light hours, 
      Enhanced by 5 to 10% during local night, 
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


 
2. FORECAST (27 OCTOBER - 02 NOVEMBER)
Solar:        low

Geomagnetic:  first active, with a chance of minor storm periods,
	      then unsettled due to possible recurrence of a small
	      coronal hole.

Frequencies:  depressed by 10 to 20% MUFs at the start of the forecasting
	      period, then near predicted monthly values.

PEASE NOTE: 
At this time of the solar cycle, space weather conditions
are frequently determined by short timescale events, not
able to be forecasted a week in advance.


IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                       | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA     | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au/users/asfc/ 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010              | fax: +61 2 9213 8060