[Ips-wsgr] IPS Weekly Solar and Geophysical Report (20 October 00)

[Regional Warning Centre]

SUBJ: IPS WEEKLY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT 
ISSUED ON 20 OCTOBER 2000, BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES,
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE

1. SUMMARY (13 OCTOBER - 19 OCTOBER)
Date     13    14    15    16    17    18    19
10cm    168   163   161   161   154   151   158
AFr      22    27     9    11     8     6 ( 10)
Aaus     16    34     7     8     9    10 (  8)
T       140   114    71   118   157   155   122

Solar:        Solar flare activity
Geomagnetic:  Geomagnetic activity observed for Australian Region.
Frequencies:  Australian Ionospheric F2 critical frequencies

13 Oct 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Active 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Depressed by 25% over the UT day.


14 Oct 
Solar:        moderate, with an M1/SF at 0840UT
Geomagnetic:  Major storm 
 Unexpected high geomagnetic activity was observed after 
 prolonged -ve IMF and slightly higher solar wind. 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near to 25% below predicted monthly values.


15 Oct 
Solar:        low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 40% during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


16 Oct 
Solar:        moderate, with an M2 at 0728UT
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Active 
Frequencies:  
Near to 30% below predicted monthly values.


17 Oct 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 
Frequencies:  
near predicted monthly values


18 Oct 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Darwin MUFs enhanced 70% 11-15UT.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
      Spread F observed.


19 Oct 
Solar:        low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Depressed by 15% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed 15% to Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


 
2. FORECAST (20 OCTOBER - 26 OCTOBER)
Solar:        low to moderate

Geomagnetic:  Recurrence suggests active conditions 21-24 Oct.
              Otherwise quiet to unsettled.

Frequencies:  Lower than normal MUFs expected for mid to high
              latitudes this week. 

PEASE NOTE: 
At this time of the solar cycle, space weather conditions
are frequently determined by short timescale events, not
able to be forecasted a week in advance.


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