[Ips-whfpr] IPS Weekly Prop. Report (22 September 04)

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS WEEKLY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED AT 22/0200Z SEPTEMBER 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST
1. SUMMARY (15 SEPTEMBER - 21 SEPTEMBER)
Date   T index   Conditions        
15 Sep   45      Normal            
MUFS:
near predicted monthly values


16 Sep   49      Normal            
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 55% during local night,
      Depressed 15-30% following local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.


17 Sep   52      Normal            
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night,
      Depressed 15-30% before local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.


18 Sep   57      Normal            
MUFS:
Mostly near predicted monthly values at all stations.


19 Sep   54      Normal            
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day,
      Enhanced by 65% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.


20 Sep   56      Normal            
MUFS:
slightly above predicted monthly values


21 Sep   43      Normal            
MUFS:
near predicted monthly values


Predicted Monthly T index for September:  38
2. FORECAST (22 SEPTEMBER - 28 SEPTEMBER) 
MUFS: Near predicted monthly values. No SWFs.
Propagation conditions: Normal.
T index:   40
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 39 was issued on 20 September 
and is current for interval  22-23 September. Subsequent lack of a 
shock observed at ACE over a day after the energetic proton signature
declined indicates the shock was not geoffectve and this warning has 
been withdrawn. 
3. OUTLOOK (29 SEPTEMBER - 29 OCTOBER)
Degraded HF propagation conditions possible:
11-Oct to 15-Oct,23-Oct to 24-Oct.

PLEASE NOTE:
At this time of the solar cycle, space weather conditions
are frequently determined by short timescale events, not
able to be forecasted a week in advance.

For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, goto
http://www.ips.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.


IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                       | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA     | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010              | fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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