[Ips-whfpr] IPS Weekly Prop. Report (15 September 04)

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS WEEKLY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED AT 15/0200Z SEPTEMBER 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST
1. SUMMARY (08 SEPTEMBER - 14 SEPTEMBER)
Date   T index   Conditions        
08 Sep   52      Normal            
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 50% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night and
      after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


09 Sep   61      Normal            
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day,
      Enhanced by 75% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.


10 Sep   66      Normal            
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 55% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 10-20% over the UT day.


11 Sep   64      Normal            
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 50% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 20-40% over the UT day.


12 Sep   66      Normal            
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 55% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day,
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day,
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 35% over the UT day.


13 Sep   63      Normal            
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 50% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 50% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 10-20% over most of the UT day. 
      Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.


14 Sep   68      Normal            
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 55% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day,
      Enhanced by 45% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 35% during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.


Predicted Monthly T index for September:  38
2. FORECAST (15 SEPTEMBER - 21 SEPTEMBER) 
MUFS: 
Depressed 15% on 16-Sep, mildly depressed after local dawn 
on 18-Sep, depressed 15% on 19-Sep,  otherwise MUFs near normal. 
SWFs possible early in week.

Propagation conditions: 
Fair-Poor 16-Sep, Fair 18-Sep, Poor 19-Sep , otherwise normal. 
SWfs possible early in week.

T index:   50

COMMENT: 
IPS HF Communications Warning 38 was issued on 13 September 
and is current for interval  14-15 September. 
3. OUTLOOK (22 SEPTEMBER - 22 OCTOBER)
Degraded HF propagation conditions possible:
11-Oct to 16-Oct.

PLEASE NOTE:
At this time of the solar cycle, space weather conditions
are frequently determined by short timescale events, not
able to be forecasted a week in advance.

For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, goto
http://www.ips.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.


IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                       | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA     | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010              | fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,confidential
or copyright information.  The views expressed in this message are those of
the individual sender, unless specifically stated to be the views of IPS.
If you are not the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. Occasionally IPS sends 
email promoting IPS products and services to its mailing list customers. 
If you do not wish to receive this promotional material please email 
no-spam at ips.gov.au with the subject header:UNSUBSCRIBE"