[Ips-whfpr] IPS Weekly Prop. Report (31 July 02)

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS WEEKLY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED AT 31/0200Z JULY 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST
1. SUMMARY (24 JULY - 30 JULY)
Date   T index   Conditions        
24 Jul  107      Normal-fair       
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 85% during local night.
      Enhanced by 15% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.

25 Jul  111      Normal-fair       
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 50% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values.
      Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.

26 Jul  130      Normal            
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.

27 Jul  121      Normal            
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced greater than 25%.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


28 Jul  135      Normal            
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 85% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

29 Jul  123      Normal-fair       
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day,
      Enhanced by 65% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

30 Jul  128      Normal            
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 50% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by upto 55% with short periods 
      of minor depressions.

Predicted Monthly T index for July: 108
2. FORECAST (31 JULY - 06 AUGUST) 
MUFS: mildy depressed after local dawn on 01-Aug, mildy 
depressed after local dawn on 02-Aug, mildy depressed after 
local dawn on 03-Aug,  otherwise MUFs near normal. SWFs 
probable early in week.
Propagation conditions: Fair 01-Aug Fair 02-Aug Fair 03-Aug,
otherwise normal. SWfs probable early in week.
T index:  110
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 36 was issued on 29 July 
and is current for interval 30 July to 1 August (SWFs). 
3. OUTLOOK (07 AUGUST - 06 SEPTEMBER)
No major degradation in HF conditions is expected during
this period. However, minor degradations in HF propagation 
conditions are possible on:
1-3 Aug,12-Aug, 16-Aug, 18-Aug and 23-24 Aug.

PEASE NOTE:
At this time of the solar cycle, space weather conditions
are frequently determined by short timescale events, not
able to be forecasted a week in advance.

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                       | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA     | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au/users/asfc/ 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010              | fax: +61 2 9213 8060