[Ips-whfpr] IPS Weekly Prop. Report (24 July 02)

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS WEEKLY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED AT 24/0200Z JULY 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST
1. SUMMARY (17 JULY - 23 JULY)
Date   T index   Conditions        
17 Jul  104      Normal            
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values to depressed 10-20%.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.


18 Jul  101      Normal            
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values to enhanced greater
      than 30%.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed 15% to near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Degraded to PCA event to near predicted monthly
      values.


19 Jul   88      Normal-fair       
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
      Depressed 10-15% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.
      Spread F observed.


20 Jul  112      Fair-normal       
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 45% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Enhanced by 15% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.


21 Jul  106      Normal            
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values with some absorbtion
      at times.


22 Jul  122      Normal            
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values to enhanced.
   Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.


23 Jul  104      Normal            
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values. during local day,
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.


Predicted Monthly T index for July: 108
2. FORECAST (24 JULY - 30 JULY) 
MUFS: 
	24 July: Near predicted monthly values.
	25-26 July: Near predicted to 15-30% depressed at times.
	27-30 July: Returning to near predicted monthly values.
        SWFs probable throughout week.
Propagation conditions:
	24 July: Normal.
	25-26 July: Fair-poor.
	27-30 July: Fair-normal.
T index:  
	24 July: 115
	25-26 July: 85
	27-30 July:100
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 33 was issued on 24 July and
is current for interval  25-26 July. 
3. OUTLOOK (31 JULY - 30 AUGUST)
Degraded HF propagation conditions possible: 12-20 Aug.

PEASE NOTE:
At this time of the solar cycle, space weather conditions
are frequently determined by short timescale events, not
able to be forecasted a week in advance.

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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