[Ips-wgr] IPS Weekly Geo. Report (19 June 03)

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS WEEKLY GEOPHYSICAL REPORT 
ISSUED ON 19 JUNE 2003, BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES,
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE

1. SUMMARY (10 JUNE - 18 JUNE)
K indices are in UT (0-24). For conversion to local time:
AEST = UT + 10 hours; ACST = UT + 9.5 hours; AWST = UT + 8 hours
        Australian Region*              
 Date     K-INDICES    A               
 10 Jun   3343 3222   13     
 11 Jun   2332 2222    9     
 12 Jun   1121 2112    4    
 13 Jun   1211 1223    6    
 14 Jun   2334 4543   22    
 15 Jun   4332 3334   17    
 16 Jun   4424 3355   26    
 17 Jun   4445 4423   25    
 18 Jun   3446 3443   29    

*estimated from real time data

Disturbed conditions observed second half of week.
Activity was due to both coronal mass ejections (CME) and coronal 
hole high speed wind stream effects. An active solar region is 
currently in the south-east quadrant of the the solar disk. A 
glancing blow from a recent mass ejection from this region is 
expected to arrive during the first half of 20 Jun. If this region 
continues to produce mass ejections these ejecta will become increasingly
geoeffective as this region rotates across the solar disk. Coronal 
hole high speed wind stream effects are expected to produced a 
general elevated background level of geomagnetic activity over the 
next 7 days.  The geomagnetic 27 day (average solar rotation period) 
recurrence board now shows three periods of extended geomagnetic 
activity due to coronal hole high speed wind streams. Coronal holes 
become more frequent in the declining phase of a solar cycle.

2. FORECAST (19 JUNE - 19 JULY)
Disturbed Periods: 
      19 Jun: Active periods (coronal hole)
      20 Jun: Active periods (coronal hole) with brief minor to 
              major storm periods due to anticpated CME arrival.
21 - 25 Jun : Active periods (coronal hole)

28 - 30 Jun : Active periods(coronal hole)
04 - 07 Jul: Active periods (coronal hole)
11 - 19 Jul: Active to minor storm periods (coronal hole)

Best Quiet Periods: 
26 - 27 Jun
02 - 03 Jul
08 - 10 Jul



PLEASE NOTE:  
At this time of the solar cycle, space weather conditions 
are frequently determined by short timescale events, not 
able to be forecasted a week in advance. 

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                       | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA     | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010              | fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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