[Ips-wgr] IPS Weekly Geo. Report (06 February 03)

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS WEEKLY GEOPHYSICAL REPORT 
ISSUED ON 06 FEBRUARY 2003, BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES,
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE

1. SUMMARY (28 JANUARY - 05 FEBRUARY)
K indices are in UT (0-24). For conversion to local time:
AEST = UT + 10 hours; ACST = UT + 9.5 hours; AWST = UT + 8 hours
        Australian Region*              
 Date     K-INDICES    A               
 28 Jan   3322 3223   11     
 29 Jan   2223 4434   16     
 30 Jan   3334 4533   22    
 31 Jan   3334 3322   14    
 01 Feb   2222 3444   15    
 02 Feb   5464 4544   38    
 03 Feb   3233 5334   19    
 04 Feb   3554 3343   26    
 05 Feb   2324 4323   15    

*estimated from real time data

Disturbed conditions observed on 30 Jan, and 02-04 Feb.
Activity believed associated with solar coronal holes.
Increased occurrence of large coronal holes has been observed
over past few months. Possibly suggesting we are now
in the declining phase of this cycle.

2. FORECAST (06 FEBRUARY - 08 MARCH)
Disturbed Periods: 
15-19 Feb  active periods chance minor storm 15-16 feb and 19 Feb.
21-22 Feb  isolated active periods possible.
01-03 Mar  active conditions, chance minor storm local night hours.

Best Quiet Periods: 
06-10 Feb
24-28 Feb

PLEASE NOTE:  
At this time of the solar cycle, space weather conditions 
are frequently determined by short timescale events, not 
able to be forecasted a week in advance. 

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                       | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA     | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010              | fax: +61 2 9213 8060