[Ips-wgr] IPS Weekly Geo. Report (12 September 02)

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS WEEKLY GEOPHYSICAL REPORT 
ISSUED ON 12 SEPTEMBER 2002, BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES,
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE

1. SUMMARY (03 SEPTEMBER - 11 SEPTEMBER)
K indices are in UT (0-24). For conversion to local time:
AEST = UT + 10 hours; ACST = UT + 9.5 hours; AWST = UT + 8 hours
        Australian Region*              
 Date     K-INDICES    A               
 03 Sep   1123 1123    7     
 04 Sep   4444 4433   24     
 05 Sep   3332 2212    9    
 06 Sep   2332 3222   10    
 07 Sep   1222 2566   29    A weak (27nT) impulse was observed in the IPS
magnetomter data at 1637UT on 07 Sep.
 08 Sep   4431 1124   14    
 09 Sep   2211 1123    6    
 10 Sep   3123 4543   19    
 11 Sep   2335 2433   18    

*estimated from real time data

Unexpected activity was observed on 04 Sep, in association
with the interplanetary magnetic field moderately southward for
the first half of the UT day. An erupting solar filament 
caused significantly disturbed conditions on 07 Sep. 
Coronal hole induced activity 10-11 Sep.

2. FORECAST (12 SEPTEMBER - 12 OCTOBER)
Disturbed Periods: 
12-13 Sep: Active periods due to coronal hole.
14-15 Sep: Active periods possible.
   22 Sep: Active periods possible.

Best Quiet Periods: 
18-21 Sep.
24-03 Oct.

PEASE NOTE:  
A large and magnetically complex solar region is currently in the
eastern hemisphere of the solar disk. This region is yet to produce
a significant flare/mass ejection. However, this region does
exhibit good flare potential. Therefore mass ejection induced 
geomagnetic activity may occur this week. Mass ejection
events cannot be forecast and are covered by IPS Geomagnetic
Warnings, with a typical lead time of 2 days.

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