[ips-sf] ASWFC Summary Forecast for 25 March - issued 1552UT/24-Mar-2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

[rwc]

A strong shock in the solar wind was observed at 24/1411UT due to the
arrival of a CME associated with a recent R3 flare. The solar wind
speed is currently very strong. The north south component of the
interplanetary magnetic field has become strongly southward (-20nT)
post shock arrival. G2-G3 geomagnetic storm conditions are now
expected for the remainder of the UT day 24-Mar. Solar activity on UT
day 24-Mar is expected to be R1-R2 with a chance for R3. The solar
wind is expected to be strong. Geomagnetic conditions are expected to
be initially G1, then increasing to G2-G3 with a chance of G4 by the
end of the UT day 24-Mar leading into 25-Mar. An S2 solar radiation
storm event is ongoing and expected to continue on 24-Mar. HF radio
communication conditions are expected to be fair to poor, especially
at high latitudes. Maximum usable frequencies are expected to be
initially near predicted values to become 20-30% depressed by the end
of the UT day. Shortwave fadeouts are probably.

Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au