[ips-sf] ASWFC Summary Forecast for 23 February - issued 2321UT/22-Feb-2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

[rwc]

An R3 (X6.3) flare was observed at 22/2234UT, with a strong HF fadeout
impacting the south Pacific region. Further HF fadeouts are likely. On
UT day 23-Feb solar activity is expected to be R2-R3, due to a large
flare active solar region currently located in the northeast solar
quadrant. The solar wind speed is expected to be light. G0 geomagnetic
conditions are expected. Moderate to possibly strong solar wind
conditions are expected from late on 24-Feb due to the anticipated
arrival of a component of a mostly west directed CME. G1 conditions
are expected during the first half of 25-Feb. Maximum usable
frequencies (MUFs) are expected to be near predicted values to 15%
enhanced. Moderately degraded HF conditions are expected on 25-Feb for
the southern Australian region. Northern Australian region MUFs are
expected to remain near normal.

Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au