[ips-sf] ASWFC Summary Forecast for 22 February - issued 2330UT/21-Feb-2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

[rwc]

Solar region AR3590 produced an R3 flare (X1.8) at 2307UT on 21-Feb,
impacting HF communications to the east of Australia. The current
eastward location of this solar region will likely reduce the effects
of any possible CME associated with the flare event. On UT day 22-Feb
solar activity is expected to be R1-R2. A solar filament eruption/west
biased CME was observed late in the UT day on 21-Feb. The solar wind
speed is expected to be light. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected.
Moderate to strong solar wind conditions are now expected from late on
24-Feb. G1 conditions are expected on 25-Feb. Further shortwave
fadeouts are considered likely. Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) are
expected to be near predicted values to 15% enhanced. There is only a
slight chance for an S1 event following the flare, due to the eastward
location of the region. Degraded HF conditions are expected on 25-Feb
for the southern Australian region.

Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au