[ips-sf] ASWFC Summary Forecast for 15 March - issued 0515UT/15-Mar-2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

[rwc]

A solar wind shock has been observed at 15/0348UT and a subsequent
geomagnetic sudden impulse observed at 15/0427UT. The interplanetary
magnetic field (IMF) is currently enhanced with the CME passing over
the Earth. The post shock arrival IMF orientation has so far only
briefly fluctuated southward. Geomagnetic G2 conditions may be
experienced tonight if this changes to a more sustained southward
orientation. The north south Solar activity on UT day 15-Mar is
expected to be at the R0 level. Solar activity may increase from
18-Mar due to the possible return of a previously flare active region.
The solar wind speed is expected to be moderate. G0-G1 activity is
expected over 15-16 Mar due to a number of recent filament eruptions,
with the chance for isolated G2 periods. HF radio communications on
15-Mar are expected to be initially normal with maximum usable
frequencies (MUFs) enhanced 15-20% for northern region Australia and
southern region Australia MUFs depressed 15% at times. HF conditions
may become degraded during local night hours 15-16 Mar, with
depressions possible 16-Mar. High latitude trans polar HF
communication is currently degraded by increased absorption from a
weak S1 solar proton event.

Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au