[ips-sf] ASWFC Summary Forecast for 14 March - issued 2312UT/13-Mar-2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

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Solar activity on UT day 14-Mar is expected to be at R0 levels. The
solar wind speed is expected to be initially light then becoming
moderate. G0-G1 activity is expected over 14-15 Mar due to a number of
recent filament eruptions. Another solar filament eruption on 13-Mar,
centrally located in the northern solar hemisphere, is likely to cause
increased geomagnetic activity from mid 15-16 Mar, with the chance for
isolated G2 periods. HF radio communications are expected to be
initially normal and maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) are expected to
enhanced 15-20%. HF conditions may become degraded during local night
hours 14-15 Mar, with depressions possible 16-Mar. A very fast full
halo far side (non Earth directed) CME was observed in LASCO space
based coronagraph imagery from 13/0348UT. The US GOES satellite solar
10MeV energy proton flux edged over the 10PFU threshold at times
during the UT day following the far side halo CME. Polar HF
communications may have experienced increased absorption at times
during UT day 13-Mar.

Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au