[ips-sf] ASWFC Summary Forecast for 06 January - issued 0613UT/06-Jan-2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

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An R3 (X1.2) solar flare has been observed at 06/0057UT from the new
solar region AR3182 in the southeast solar quadrant at S18E64. A
strong HF fadeout has been observed in association with this flare in
the Australian region from 06/0054-0156UT. The deepest fadeout
interval was during the interval 06/0100-0115UT. Solar activity on UT
day 06-Jan is now expected to be at R1-R3 levels. A new moderately
large solar region has rotated onto the solar disk over the southeast
solar limb and further solar flare activity is likely from this
region. The solar wind is expected to be light. At present this region
is located too far east in solar longitude for any flare associated
coronal mas ejections to be significantly geoeffective. G0 geomagnetic
conditions are expected. Southern Australian region maximum usable
frequencies have been depressed 15% 06/00-04UT and are now near
normal. Northern Australian region MUFs have been near predicted
monthly values to 15% enhanced. Further shortwave fadeouts are
probable in coming days.

Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au