[ips-sf] ASWFC Summary Forecast for 15 December - issued 0754UT/15-Dec-2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

[rwc]

Update: Solar region AR3514 produced an R2 (M6.9) flare at 15/0734UT.
The west coast of Australia has been impacted by a HF fadeout. The
flare profile suggests that a S1 solar proton event may follow this
flare. Solar activity on UT day 15-Dec is expected to be at R1-R2
levels. A solar region in the northwest solar quadrant has produced R2
and R3 flare/CME activity on 14-Dec. The solar wind speed is expected
to be light to moderate on 15-Dec, with the chance of reaching strong
speeds on 17-Dec due to component arrivals of the CMEs observed on
14-Dec. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected, with a mild increase
in geomagnetic activity expected on 16-Dec due to a recent faint CME.
A further increase in geomagnetic activity is expected on 17-Dec, with
G1 periods expected. HF radio communication conditions are expected to
be normal on 15-Dec. Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) are expected to
be near predicted monthly values. Degraded conditions for the southern
Australian region are expected 17-18 Dec. Isolated shortwave fadeouts
are possible.

Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au