[ips-sf] ASWFC Summary Forecast for 05 October - issued 2330UT/04-Oct-2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

[rwc]

Solar activity is expected to be at predominantly R1 levels on 05-Oct,
with isolated R2 flares possible. The solar wind speed is expected to
be moderate due to the prolonged declining influence of coronal hole
high speed wind streams. The forecast arrival of coronal mass
ejections for 04-Oct has failed to eventuate. Two coronal mass
ejections associated with recent solar filament eruptions may reach
the Earth over 06-07-Oct. The geomagnetic field is expected to be at
G0-G1 levels for 05-Oct. An increase in geomagnetic activity to ASWAS
G1 is expected during 06-07-Oct. HF conditions are now expected to be
mostly normal on 05-Oct, with degraded conditions likely for middle to
high latitudes during 06-07-Oct. Isolated shortwave fadeouts are
likely on daylight HF circuits.

Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au