[ips-sf] SWS Summary Forecast for 08 September - issued 0342UT/08-Sep-2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Sep 8 13:42:04 EST 2017

Solar activity remained at High levels during the last 24 hours with
region 2673(S0958) producing three M-class flares and another X1.3
flare. Region 2673 maintained mixed polarity and and complex magnetic
configuration, beta_gamma-delta class. It has the potential for very
large flares over the next few days before it turns around the West
limb, so expect the solar activity to be Moderate to High over the
next few days with a chance of Very High solar activity. A strong
shock was observed in the solar wind at 2230UT, most likely to be the
earlier than expected arrival of the fast CME from region 2673
associated with the X9.3 flare. Bz is currently sustaining a southward
orientation at -30nT with solar wind speed up to 750km/s. The regional
Dst index dipped to -240 nT. Short-wave radio fadeouts likely.
High-frequency radio communications Poor to Fair due to disturbed
ionosphere. Enhancements expected in the Australian region until local
night time hours when Maximum Useable Frequencies are expected to
become depressed. Decreasing chances for intense aurora sightings from
southern Australian regions tonight, 08 September, due to the storm
arriving earlier than expected. Periods of absorption noted in the
polar region due to elevated levels of high energy protons impacting
the polar ionosphere.

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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