[ips-sf] IPS Summary Forecast for 19 May - issued 2331UT/18-May-2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu May 19 09:31:50 EST 2016

Solar X-ray flare activity was very low (a single weak B class flare)
during 18 May UT and it is expected to remain very low to low during
the next 2 days. Coronal Hole (CH) 735 spans the solar equator and
connects to a large Northern polar coronal hole. Coronal Holes are the
source of fast solar wind. CH 735 has almost rotated into a
geoeffective location. There is the possibility of a minor geomagnetic
storm (Kp=5) during 20 May due to the arrival of the frontal
disturbance ahead of fast wind emanating from CH 735. An aurora watch
has not been issued because the Moon is waxing toward full. The solar
wind speed has dropped to below 450 km/s and it may start to increase
again late today. Conditions for HF radio wave propagation are
expected to be mildly depressed to near normal today, 19 May UT.

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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