[ips-sf] IPS Summary Forecast for 18 May - issued 2333UT/17-May-2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed May 18 09:33:02 EST 2016

The largest sunspot on the visible solar disk (Active Region 2546) is
located in the Eastern Hemisphere. This region is magnetically stable
and so far has not produced any noteworthy X-ray flares. X-ray flare
activity was very low to low (a single weak C class flare) during 17
May UT and it is expected to remain very low to low during the next 2
days. The strong Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) launched toward the west
on 15 May may sideswipe Earth late today, 18 May, leading to active
geomagnetic conditions. Equatorial Coronal Hole (CH) 735 is rotating
toward a geoeffective location. The arrival of a frontal disturbance
ahead of fast wind emanating from CH 735 may drive a minor storm (G1,
Kp=5) during 20-21 May. An aurora watch has not been issued because
the Moon is waxing toward full. The solar wind speed is currently
about 500 km/s. Conditions for HF radio wave propagation are expected
to be mildly depressed to near normal today, 18 May.

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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