[ips-sf] IPS Summary Forecast for 16 May - issued 2354UT/15-May-2014

[rwc]

Solar maximum for the current solar cycle 24 occurred in the Northern
Hemisphere first, probably late in 2011. A second larger solar maximum
is in progress in the Southern Hemisphere. It is interesting that
during the past week, more solar Active Regions (AR) were located in
the Northern Hemisphere on the visible disk. However, globally, more
activity is still located in the Southern Hemisphere on most days.
Most of this solar activity has been moderate compared to that of
recent solar maxima: the largest solar X ray flare during the previous
day was a C5.0 event with peak output at 02:56 UT on 15 May. There is
still a chance that AR 2063, 2060, 2056 or 2058 will produce a modest
M class solar flare during the next 48 hours. GONG Big Bear H alpha
observations recorded the rapid ejection of a large prominence from
the SE limb during 20 UT on 15 May. This would have been easily
observed in small solar H alpha telescopes. The solar wind speed is
presently light but faster flows may arrive later today. If they do,
they will drive intervals of unsettled geomagnetic activity.
Conditions for HF radio communication have been near or slightly above
predicted monthly values.

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