[ips-sf] IPS Summary Forecast for 15 May - issued 2356UT/14-May-2014

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu May 15 09:56:59 EST 2014

Active Region (AR) 2056 produced a C6.8 solar X-ray flare on 13 May
and a C8.3 flare peaking at 15:04 UT on 14 May. Newly formed AR 2063
located in the NE quadrant of the solar disk exhibited strong growth
overnight. It has already produced 4 weak C class flares and has the
potential for further significant activity. There is a possibility of
an M class flare during the next 3 days. The GONG Udaipur H-alpha
telescope observed the uplift and ejection of a dark solar filament in
the SE quadrant of the solar disk during 05 to 07 UT. Enthusiasts with
access to H alpha telescopes located in Western Australia could have
watched the progression of this event which may have caused the strong
Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) leaving the east limb. There are presently
no Earthward directed CMEs which might drive a geomagnetic storm
favouring the observation of auroras from Southern Australia. The
Earth is presently in slow solar wind with a speed of about 350 km/s,
but it is expected to be impacted by a Coronal Hole High Speed Stream
(CHHSS) later today. The faster wind may drive unsettled geomagnetic
conditions. Conditions for HF radio communication have been strongly
enhanced at some low latitude stations but are otherwise expected to
be close to normal at most Australian mainland stations.

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