[ips-sf] IPS Summary Forecast for 01 October - issued 0106UT/01-Oct-2013

[rwc]

Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours, however a very
large filament erupted from the northwest quadrant of the solar disc
early in the day yesterday (29 September 2339UT). This activity was
associated with a partial halo coronal mass ejection which indicates
it is Earthward bound for at least a glancing blow. The arrival time
is expected to be late on the UT day 02 October or early 03 October.
Due to the size and mass of the erupting filament there is a good
chance for auroral activity in the southern Australian regions on the
night of 02 October and/or 03 October depending on the arrival time.
The solar wind is presently light, but is expected to increase in a
couple days with the pending activity. Geomagnetic activity is mostly
quiet at this time and high-frequency radio communications are normal
for the Australian region. However, there is a polar cap absorption in
progress due to high energy protons be driven to the polar regions
that is associated with the activity mentioned above.

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