[ips-sf] IPS Summary Forecast for 01 October - issued 0550UT/01-Oct-2013

[rwc]

A very large filament erupted from the northwest quadrant of the solar
disc early in the day yesterday (29 September 2339UT). This activity
was associated with a partial halo coronal mass ejection which
indicates it is Earthward bound for at least a glancing blow. The
arrival time is expected to be late on the UT day 02 October or early
03 October. Due to the size and mass of the erupting filament there is
a good chance for auroral activity in the southern Australian regions
on the night of 02 October and/or 03 October depending on the arrival
time. Flare activity was very low over the last 24 hours. The solar
wind is presently light, but is expected to increase in a couple days
with the pending activity. Geomagnetic activity is mostly quiet at
this time and high-frequency radio communications are normal for the
Australian region. However, there is a polar cap absorption in
progress due to high energy protons be driven to the polar regions
that is associated with the activity mentioned above.

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