[ips-sf] IPS Summary Forecast for 17 May - issued 2351UT/16-May-2013

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri May 17 09:51:21 EST 2013


Moderate flare activity expected 17-May. Solar active region 1748,
which produced four X-class and one M-class flare over the last four
days has declined in size but remains complex with significant flare
potential. Further fadeouts are possible. High-frequency radio
communications are mostly normal in the Aus/NZ region, and poor at
high latitudes due to polar cap absorption affecting lower
frequencies. The geomagnetic field has been Unsettled with isolated
Active periods due periods of sustained southwards-directed
interplanetary magnetic field (IMF). A CME is expected to arrive
overnight 17-May producing Active geomagnetic conditions, with
possible Minor Storm periods at high latitudes.

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