[ips-sf] IPS Summary Forecast for 16 May - issued 2339UT/15-May-2013

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu May 16 09:39:16 EST 2013


Moderate to high solar flare activity expected 16-May, with a chance
of further X-class flares from solar active region 1748. This region
has produced four X-class flares over the last 3 days, with associated
short-wave fadeouts. Further fadeouts are likely. High-frequency radio
communications are mostly normal in the Aus/NZ region, and poor at
high latitudes due to weak polar cap absorption affecting lower
frequencies. The geomagnetic field is Unsettled due to the combined
effects of a minor coronal hole and an eruptive filament. A CME is
expected to arrive midway through 17-May producing Active geomagnetic
conditions, with possible Minor Storm periods.

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