[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 28 May 22 issued 2330 UT on 28 May 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun May 29 09:30:49 EST 2022
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/28 MAY 2022 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 29 MAY - 31 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 May: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 May: 102/50
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
29 May 30 May 31 May
Activity R0 R0 R0
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 100/48 100/48 100/48
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 28 May was at the R0 level,
with two low level C flares observed. No significant sunspot
regions are currently visible on the solar disk. No significant
Earth directed CMEs have been observed, however a solar filament
located at S35E30, appears to have partially lifted off the solar
disk at around 28/0600UT with a associated faint CME visible
to the southeast in LASCO imagery. Event modelling shows a very
weak glancing blow is possible on 01 June from this event. Also,
a large/bright, currently presumed farside CME, is visible in
LASCO C2 imagery from around 28/1512UT. The solar wind speed
range on 28 May was 445 to 571km/s, the peak total interplanetary
magnetic field strength (Bt) was 10nT, and the north-south component
(Bz) range was -8 to 6nT. The solar wind speed is expected to
remain elevated on 29 May due to coronal hole wind stream effects,
with a return to ambient conditions expected on 30 May.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 May: G0
Estimated Indices 28 May : A K
Australian Region 12 34432101
Darwin 9 33332111
Learmonth 12 34432110
Alice Springs 12 34432101
Gingin 9 33332101
Canberra 15 34532102
Hobart 18 34543202
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 28 May :
Macquarie Island 28 35564201
Casey 8 33332001
Mawson 42 67633102
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 5 (Quiet)
Canberra 8 (Quiet)
Hobart 19 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 May : A
Fredericksburg 21
Planetary 25
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 May : A K
Fredericksburg 14
Planetary 15 1122 4432
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
29 May 13 G0
30 May 10 G0
31 May 7 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 28 May. G0 to G3 levels were observed in the
Antarctic region. The geomagnetic field is mildly disturbed due
to coronal hole wind stream effects and mildly elevated geomagnetic
conditions are expected to persist on 29 May, although only G0
conditions are expected in the Australian region. There is a
slight chance of a mild increase in geomagnetic activity on 01
June, from a possible weak glancing blow from a recent CME associated
with a partial solar filament eruption.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 May Normal Fair-normal Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 May Normal Fair-normal Fair
30 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
31 May Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
for 29-31 May.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
28 May 87
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 40% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 77
May 51
Jun 54
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
29 May 75 Near to 20% above predicted monthly values
30 May 75 Near to 20% above predicted monthly values
31 May 75 Near to 20% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 28 May were
near monthly predicted to 20% enhanced. Night time spread F was
observed at southern Australian region sites. MUFs are expected
to be mostly near monthly predicted values to mildly enhanced
during 29-31May.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 27 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.30E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B6.1
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 May
Speed: 336 km/sec Density: 14.9 p/cc Temp: 62400 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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