[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 27 May 22 issued 2330 UT on 27 May 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat May 28 09:30:50 EST 2022
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/27 MAY 2022 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 28 MAY - 30 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 May: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 May: 114/65
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
28 May 29 May 30 May
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 112/63 108/58 110/60
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 27 May was at the R0 level,
with a few low level C flares. The visible spot regions are mostly
small and stable with AR3021 (N12E01), a Bxo/beta group, the
most complex and showing some slight growth. Solar activity is
expected to be at the R0 level with a chance of R1 level on 28-30
May. No Earth directed CMEs have been observed in the available
images. The solar wind parameters on 27 May were settled until
the arrival of the coronal hole wind stream around 0615 UT. The
solar wind speed range on 27 May was 294 to 495 km/s and is currently
near 470 km/s. The peak total interplanetary magnetic field strength
(Bt) was 18 nT, and the north-south component (Bz) range was
+12/-16 nT with some sustained southward periods since ~1050
UT. The solar wind speed is expected to be elevated on 28 and
29 May from the coronal hole effects. There is the possibility
of a weak CME impact in the first half of 28 May from a CME first
observed on 25 May. A return to nearer ambient conditions is
expected on 30 May.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 May: G0
Estimated Indices 27 May : A K
Australian Region 7 11123322
Darwin 7 11223222
Learmonth 8 11123332
Alice Springs 7 11123322
Gingin 9 00114333
Canberra 7 01123322
Hobart 6 00123322
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 27 May :
Macquarie Island 18 00016522
Casey 7 12123222
Mawson 22 11114356
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 May :
Darwin 3 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Hobart 17 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 May : A
Fredericksburg 13
Planetary 18
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 May : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 4 1111 1211
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
28 May 16 G0
29 May 13 G0
30 May 10 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 27 May. G0 to G2 levels were observed in the
Antarctic region. Weak coronal hole effects that commenced on
27 May and the possibility of a weak CME impact in the first
half of 28 May are expected to mildly elevate geomagnetic conditions
on 28-29 May, although only G0 conditions are expected in the
Australian region.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 May Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 May Normal Normal-fair Fair
29 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
30 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
for 28-30 May. Shortwave fadeouts are possible during this period.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
27 May 71
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 77
May 51
Jun 54
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
28 May 70 Near to 20% above predicted monthly values
29 May 70 Near to 20% above predicted monthly values
30 May 70 Near to 20% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 27 May were
near monthly predicted. Enhancements to at least 30% were observed
at times at Darwin, Cocos Is. and Niue. Night time spread F was
observed at Hobart. MUFs are expected to be mostly near monthly
predicted values to mildly enhanced during 28-30 May. There is
the chance of shortwave fadeouts over the forecast period.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 26 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.4E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.40E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B7.1
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 May
Speed: 342 km/sec Density: 9.9 p/cc Temp: 29100 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of SWS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list