[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 17 May 22 issued 2331 UT on 17 May 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed May 18 09:31:03 EST 2022
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/17 MAY 2022 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 18 MAY - 20 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 May: R0
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
C9.0 1145UT probable lower European
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 May: 171/125
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
18 May 19 May 20 May
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 170/124 170/124 170/124
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 17-May was at R0 level, with
several C-class flares. The strongest flare was a C9.9 from AR3010
at 17/1145UT. There are currently seven numbered sunspot regions
on the solar disk, all of which exhibit a beta magnetic classification,
besides AR3014 (N22E29, beta-gamma-delta). Region 3014 has increased
in spot count, and has the greatest potential to produce M-class
flares. Solar activity is expected to be at R0-R1 levels on 18-20
May, with a slight chance of R2 level. Two CMEs were observed
starting at around 17/0600UT, one directed to the east and one
directed to the south; it is unclear whether these two CMEs are
separate events, or the same event. The direction of the CME
is predominantly southward out of the ecliptic plane, and thus
is not considered to be geoeffective. A large prominence eruption
was observed in SDO and H-alpha imagery starting around 17/1500UT
on the northwest limb (N40). A subsequent CME is visible in LASCO
and STEREO-A imagery which is not considered to be geoeffective,
although further analysis will be conducted when more coronagraph
imagery becomes available. The solar wind speed on 17-May continued
to be enhanced, ranging from 457-616 km/s, due to coronal hole
effects. The solar wind speed is currently near 550 km/s. The
peak total interplanetary magnetic field strength (IMF, Bt) was
11 nT, and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +10 to
-8 nT. Bz was intermittently southward between 0639-1130UT. The
solar wind speed is expected to continue to be enhanced over
18-20 May due to coronal hole effects, decreasing back towards
background levels towards the end of the period.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 May: G0
Estimated Indices 17 May : A K
Australian Region 8 12332221
Darwin 9 23332211
Learmonth 9 23332221
Alice Springs 7 12332211
Gingin 8 12332221
Canberra 6 12322111
Hobart 7 02332221
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 17 May :
Macquarie Island 11 11244311
Casey 13 34432122
Mawson 28 24444363
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Hobart 6 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 May : A
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 May : A K
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 10 2333 2222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
18 May 8 G0
19 May 5 G0
20 May 5 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 17-May. G0 conditions were observed in the Antarctic
region, with an isolated period of G1 observed at Mawson in the
later part of the UT day. G0 conditions are likely for the Australian
region during 18-20 May.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 May Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 May Normal Normal Normal
19 May Normal Normal Normal
20 May Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
for 18-20 May. Short-wave fadeouts are possible during this period.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
17 May 92
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 45% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Enhanced by 70% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 77
May 51
Jun 54
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
18 May 90 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
19 May 90 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
20 May 90 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: SWS SWF HF Communications Warning 44 was issued on 17
May and is current for 17-19 May. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 17-May were near monthly predicted values to
slightly enhanced. Spread-F was observed at Hobart during 1100-1400UT.
MUFs are expected to be mostly near monthly predicted values
to slightly enhanced during 18-20 May. Short-wave fadeouts are
possible during this period.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 16 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.7E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.2
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 May
Speed: 530 km/sec Density: 9.8 p/cc Temp: 344000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of SWS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list