[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 16 May 22 issued 2331 UT on 16 May 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue May 17 09:31:01 EST 2022
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/16 MAY 2022 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 17 MAY - 19 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 May: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M2.4 1327UT possible lower European
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 May: 162/116
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
17 May 18 May 19 May
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 162/116 160/114 160/114
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 16-May was at R1 level, with
a M2.4 flare originating from new region 3017 (N14E73) at 16/1327UT.
There are currently seven numbered sunspot regions on the solar
disk, although no significant flaring activity has been observed
in addition to the single M-class flare. Regions 3007 (S22W35,
beta), 3010 (S14E25, beta) and new region 3014 (N23E42, beta-delta)
are the most complex regions. Solar activity is expected to be
at R0-R1 levels on 17-19 May, with a slight chance of R2 level.
Several CMEs were observed in the available imagery, although
none are considered geoeffective. The solar wind speed on 16-May
was enhanced, ranging from 481-584 km/s, due to coronal hole
effects. The solar wind speed is currently near 500 km/s. The
peak total interplanetary magnetic field strength (IMF Bt) was
10 nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +7 to
-5 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to continue to be enhanced
over 17-19 May due to coronal hole effects, decreasing back towards
background levels towards the end of the period.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 May: G0
Estimated Indices 16 May : A K
Australian Region 7 13322111
Darwin 7 23322111
Learmonth 7 13322120
Alice Springs 7 13322111
Gingin 8 23322221
Canberra 6 13222210
Hobart 7 13233110
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 16 May :
Macquarie Island 9 12334210
Casey 12 34322321
Mawson 16 14433242
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 29 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 40 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 49 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 May : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 11
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 May : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 12 4422 2222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
17 May 10 G0
18 May 8 G0
19 May 5 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in both the
Australian and Antarctic regions on UT day 16-May. G0 conditions
are likely for the Australian region during 17-19 May.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 May Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
18 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
19 May Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
for 17-19 May. Short-wave fadeouts are possible during this period.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
16 May 84
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 35% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 77
May 51
Jun 54
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
17 May 80 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
18 May 80 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
19 May 80 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 16-May were
near monthly predicted values to mildly enhanced. Spread-F was
observed at Hobart during 1900-2100UT. MUFs are expected to be
mostly near monthly predicted values to slightly enhanced during
17-19 May. Short-wave fadeouts are possible during this period.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 15 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.5E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 May
Speed: 536 km/sec Density: 9.7 p/cc Temp: 284000 K Bz: 3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of SWS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list