[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 28 March 22 issued 0006 UT on 29 Mar 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Mar 29 11:06:17 EST 2022
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT "Corrected version"
ISSUED AT 2330UT/28 MARCH 2022 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 29 MARCH - 31 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Mar: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M4.0 1129UT possible lower European
M1.0 2101UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Mar: 156/110
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
29 Mar 30 Mar 31 Mar
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 150/105 150/105 145/99
COMMENT: Solar activity was Moderate on UT day 28 Mar with several
M and C flares, the largest was an M4 flare at 28/1129UT from
region 2975.This region has developed significantly and has the
potential to produce more M Class flares. Region 2976 is the
largest but remained stable. Solar activity is expected to be
low to moderate for 29-31 Mar. The proton flux >10MeV exceeded
the threshold following the M4 flare in combination with a type
II and type IV radio bursts. An asymmetric halo CME was visible
in SOHO and STEREO LASCO coronagraph starting 28/1200 UT. Analysis
and event modelling showed a shock arrival early on 31 Mar. On
UT day 28 Mar, the solar wind speed was enhanced, between 435
- 565 km/sec due to waning coronal hole effects. Interplanetary
magnetic field (IMF) total strength (Bt) peaked at 9 nT. The
north-south IMF component (Bz) varied between -5 nT and 3 nT.
Solar wind conditions are expected to continue to gradually decline
for the next two UT days, 29-30 Mar. The M4 CME is expected to
impact early 31 Mar.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 28 Mar : A K
Australian Region 4 32112001
Darwin 5 32112101
Townsville 5 32112101
Learmonth 5 32122002
Alice Springs 5 33112000
Gingin 3 22112001
Canberra 5 33112001
Hobart 5 23212001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 28 Mar :
Macquarie Island 6 23223000
Casey 13 35421012
Mawson 14 34221125
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 31 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 36 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 22 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 20 2113 3553
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
29 Mar 8 Quiet to Unsettled
30 Mar 8 Quiet to Unsettled
31 Mar 30 Quiet to minor storm with possible major storm
periods.
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled in the
Australian region on UT day 28 Mar, with quiet to storm levels
in the Antarctic region, due to coronal hole effects. Geomagnetic
conditions are expected to be mostly quiet on 29-30 Mar with
possible unsettled periods. Conditions are expected to reach
minor storm levels with a chance of major storm periods on 31
Mar due to CME impacts.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Mar Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began at 1315UT 28/03, Ended at 2030UT 28/03
and, 100MeV Proton/PCA Event Began at 1230UT 28/03, Ended at 1450UT 28/03
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Mar Normal Normal Normal
30 Mar Normal Normal Normal
31 Mar Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal to enhanced HF conditions are expected
for 29-30 Mar, with mild degradations possible on 31 Mar. There
is a chance for shortwave fadeouts on daylight HF circuits over
the next few days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
28 Mar 74
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 65% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 45% during local night.
Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb 59
Mar 42
Apr 44
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
29 Mar 70 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
30 Mar 70 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
31 Mar 40 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: SWS SWF HF Communications Warning 29 was issued on 28
March and is current for 29-31 Mar. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 28 Mar were near monthly predicted values to
strongly enhanced. Near monthly predicted values with enhancements
are expected for 29-30 Mar. Mildly degraded conditions may be
experienced on 31 Mar due to anticipated geomagnetic activity.
There is a chance for shortwave fadeouts on daylight HF circuits
over the next few days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 27 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B6.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Mar
Speed: 502 km/sec Density: 10.8 p/cc Temp: 303000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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