[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 28 March 22 issued 2341 UT on 28 Mar 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Mar 29 10:41:11 EST 2022


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/28 MARCH 2022 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 29 MARCH - 31 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** RED **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Mar:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M4.0    1129UT  possible   lower  European
  M1.0    2101UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Mar: 156/110


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             29 Mar             30 Mar             31 Mar
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   150/105            150/105            145/99

COMMENT: Solar activity was Moderate on UT day 28 Mar with several 
M and C flares, the largest was an M4 flare at 28/1129UT from 
region 2975.This region has developed significantly and has the 
potential to produce more M Class flares. Region 2976 is the 
largest but remained stable. Solar activity is expected to be 
low to moderate for 29-31 Mar. The proton flux >10MeV exceeded 
the threshold following the M4 flare in combination with a type 
II and type IV radio bursts. An asymmetric halo CME was visible 
in SOHO and STEREO LASCO coronagraph starting 28/1200 UT. Analysis 
and event modelling showed a shock arrival early on 31 Mar. On 
UT day 28 Mar, the solar wind speed was enhanced, between 435 
- 565 km/sec due to waning coronal hole effects. Interplanetary 
magnetic field (IMF) total strength (Bt) peaked at 9 nT. The 
north-south IMF component (Bz) varied between -5 nT and 3 nT. 
Solar wind conditions are expected to continue to gradually decline 
for the next two UT days, 29-30 Mar. The M4 CME is expected to 
impact early 31 Mar.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 28 Mar : A   K           
   Australian Region       4   32112001
      Darwin               5   32112101
      Townsville           5   32112101
      Learmonth            5   32122002
      Alice Springs        5   33112001
      Gingin               3   22112001
      Canberra             5   33112001
      Hobart               5   23212001    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 28 Mar :
      Macquarie Island     6   23223000
      Casey               13   35421012
      Mawson              14   34221125

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Mar : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            2   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              31   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra            36   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart              23   (Quiet to unsettled)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        15
           Planetary             20   2113 3553     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
29 Mar     8    Quiet to Unsettled
30 Mar     8    Quiet to Unsettled
31 Mar    30    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled in the 
Australian region on UT day 28 Mar, with quiet to storm levels 
in the Antarctic region, due to coronal hole effects. Geomagnetic 
conditions are expected to be mostly quiet on 29-30 Mar with 
possible unsettled periods. Conditions are expected to reach 
minor storm levels with a chance of major storm periods on 31 
Mar due to CME impacts.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began at 1315UT 28/03, Ended at 2030UT 28/03
 and, 100MeV Proton/PCA Event Began at 1230UT 28/03, Ended at 1450UT 28/03

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
29 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal
30 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal
31 Mar      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair

COMMENT: Mostly normal to enhanced HF conditions are expected 
for 29-30 Mar, with mild degradations possible on 31 Mar. There 
is a chance for shortwave fadeouts on daylight HF circuits over 
the next few days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
28 Mar    74

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Enhanced by 65% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 45% during local night.
      Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Feb      59
Mar      42
Apr      44

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
29 Mar    70    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
30 Mar    70    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
31 Mar    40    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 28 Mar were 
near monthly predicted values to strongly enhanced. Near monthly 
predicted values with enhancements are expected for 29-30 Mar. 
Mildly degraded conditions may be experienced on 31 Mar due to 
anticipated geomagnetic activity. There is a chance for shortwave 
fadeouts on daylight HF circuits over the next few days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 27 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.2E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B6.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Mar
Speed: 502 km/sec  Density:   10.8 p/cc  Temp:   303000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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