[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 25 March 22 issued 2331 UT on 25 Mar 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Mar 26 10:31:19 EST 2022
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/25 MARCH 2022 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 26 MARCH - 28 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Mar: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1/-- 0526UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Mar: 112/63
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
26 Mar 27 Mar 28 Mar
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 112/63 112/63 110/60
COMMENT: Solar activity was moderate on UT day 25 Mar with an
M1 flare from region 2974 at 25/0526 UT. There are five numbered
regions on the solar disc. A south-east CME associated with the
M1 flare is expected to give Earth a glancing blow on 28 Mar.
Solar activity is likely to be low to moderate for 26-28 Mar.
The solar wind speed continued to decline and is currently around
415 km/s. Interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) total strength
(Bt) peaked at 5 nT. The north-south IMF component (Bz) varied
between -5 nT and 3 nT. Coronal hole effects are likely to disturb
the solar wind for a few days starting during 26 Mar.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Mar: Quiet
Estimated Indices 25 Mar : A K
Australian Region 5 21122220
Darwin 5 21122221
Townsville 7 22232220
Learmonth 5 21122220
Alice Springs 5 22122220
Gingin 5 21122221
Canberra 7 22232220
Hobart 6 21232210
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 25 Mar :
Macquarie Island 16 11363220
Casey 10 33332221
Mawson 13 24223340
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 8 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 11 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8 3112 3312
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
26 Mar 12 Quiet early, unsettled to active later
27 Mar 15 Unsettled to Active
28 Mar 12 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were mostly quiet in the Australian
region on UT day 25 Mar, with quiet to active periods in the
Antarctic region. Australian conditions are expected to be quiet
until later on 26 Mar when coronal hole effects are likely to
result in unsettled to active conditions lasting into 28 Mar.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
27 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
28 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected for 26-28 Mar,
with mild degradations possible at high latitudes. Short-wave
fadeouts are possible for the next three days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
25 Mar 67
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb 59
Mar 42
Apr 44
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
26 Mar 60 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
27 Mar 50 Near predicted monthly values
28 Mar 50 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: SWS SWF HF Communications Warning 28 was issued on 24
March and is current for 25-27 Mar. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 25 Mar were near monthly predicted values or
mildly enhanced. Similar conditions are likely on 26 Mar, with
near monthly predicted values for 27-28 Mar.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 24 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Mar
Speed: 523 km/sec Density: 8.3 p/cc Temp: 306000 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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