[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 18 June 22 issued 2330 UT on 18 Jun 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jun 19 09:30:49 EST 2022


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/18 JUNE 2022 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 19 JUNE - 21 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Jun:  R0

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Jun: 140/94


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             19 Jun             20 Jun             21 Jun
Activity     R0-R1              R0-R1              R0-R1
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   141/95             137/91             134/88

COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 18 Jun was at the R0 level. 
Decaying AR3031 (S27W57) produced the largest flare, a C4.9 at 
2105 UT. ARs 3030 (N20W43) and 3038 (N16E21) have displayed some 
growth while the other six spot groups are stable or in decay. 
Solar activity is expected to be at the R0 level with a chance 
of R1 level flaring on 19-21 Jun. No Earth-directed CMEs have 
been observed in the available coronagraph images. A filament 
to the northeast of AR3032 N20W32) has been active but has not 
erupted. The solar wind speed on 18 Jun trended lower, ranging 
between 541-637 km/s. The peak total interplanetary magnetic 
field strength (Bt) was 7 nT and the north-south component (Bz) 
range was +/-5 nT. Bz has been mostly mildly southward since 
about 1915 UT. The solar wind speed is expected to decline over 
19-21 Jun as coronal hole effects abate.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Jun: G0

Estimated Indices 18 Jun : A   K           
   Australian Region       6   22220123
      Darwin               5   12220122
      Learmonth            6   22220123
      Alice Springs        6   22220123
      Gingin               7   32220123
      Canberra             5   22120122
      Hobart               5   22120122    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 18 Jun :
      Macquarie Island     4   22121012
      Casey               11   33231114
      Mawson              36   65342246

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Jun : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               2   (Quiet)
      Canberra             4   (Quiet)
      Hobart               9   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             11                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        14
           Planetary             14   4223 2253     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
19 Jun    10    G0
20 Jun     8    G0
21 Jun     7    G0

COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian 
region on UT day 18 Jun. G0 conditions were observed in the Antarctic 
region with G1-G2 levels observed at Mawson. G0 conditions are 
expected on 19-21 Jun.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
20 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal
21 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected 
on 19-21 Jun.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
18 Jun    72

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
May      79
Jun      57
Jul      59

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
19 Jun    70    Near predicted monthly values
20 Jun    70    Near predicted monthly values
21 Jun    65    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 18 Jun were 
mostly near monthly predicted values. Spread F was observed at 
Hobart, Norfolk and Townsville during local night hours. MUFs 
are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly values 19-21 
Jun.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 17 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.6E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  3.9E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.70E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B9.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Jun
Speed: 598 km/sec  Density:    9.2 p/cc  Temp:   574000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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