[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 17 June 22 issued 2330 UT on 17 Jun 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jun 18 09:30:49 EST 2022
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/17 JUNE 2022 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 18 JUNE - 20 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Jun: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Jun: 149/104
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
18 Jun 19 Jun 20 Jun
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 148/102 146/100 142/96
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 17-Jun was at R0 level, with
several C-class flares. AR3030 (N20W30, beta) was responsible
for most of the flaring activity, and produced the strongest
flare, being a C5.6 at 17/1123UT. AR3030 has exhibited growth
in the past 24 hours, developing several new spots. There are
currently eight numbered sunspot regions on the solar disk. AR3031
(S25W43, beta-gamma) is the most complex region, but is showing
signs of decay. AR3035 (S18E24, beta) and AR3038 (N19E39, beta)
have both exhibited spot development in the past 24 hours, the
former of which is only minor. All other remaining regions are
either stable or in decay. Solar activity is expected to be at
R0-R1 levels over 18-20 Jun. No Earth-directed CMEs have been
observed. Two eruptive prominences were observed beyond the western
limb, visible in SDO and H-alpha imagery from 17/0357UT (N50)
and 17/1236UT (S35) respectively. The resulting CMEs are visible
in LASCO C2 imagery from 17/0512UT (NW) and 17/1348UT (SW), but
are not considered to be geoeffective. The solar wind speed on
17-Jun was elevated, ranging between 550-675 km/s, and is currently
near 610 km/s. The peak total interplanetary magnetic field strength
(IMF, Bt) was 8 nT, and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range
was +7 to -6 nT. Bz was southward several times during the UT
day, for short, isolated periods of time. The solar wind speed
is expected to remain elevated over 18-20 Jun due to coronal
hole effects.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Jun: G0
Estimated Indices 17 Jun : A K
Australian Region 8 22232231
Darwin 6 21232121
Learmonth 9 32222232
Alice Springs 8 22232231
Gingin 9 32222232
Canberra 8 22232231
Hobart 7 22222231
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 17 Jun :
Macquarie Island 10 22234131
Casey 18 33333253
Mawson 32 55454252
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 2 (Quiet)
Gingin 31 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 36 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 27 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 14
Planetary 12 2333 3234
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
18 Jun 8 G0
19 Jun 8 G0
20 Jun 5 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 17-Jun. G0-G1 conditions were observed in the
Antarctic region. G0 conditions are generally expected over 18-20
Jun.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Jun Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
19 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
20 Jun Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
over 18-20 Jun. Mildly degraded conditions possible during local
night hours for middle to high latitudes for the next two days,
returning to normal by 20-Jun.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
17 Jun 68
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 55% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
May 79
Jun 57
Jul 59
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
18 Jun 75 Near predicted monthly values
19 Jun 75 Near predicted monthly values
20 Jun 75 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 17-Jun were
mostly near monthly predicted values. Spread-F was observed at
Hobart during local night hours. MUFs are expected to be mostly
near predicted monthly values over 18-20 Jun, with mild degradations
possible during local night hours.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 16 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.9E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 5.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.30E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B7.5
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Jun
Speed: 553 km/sec Density: 8.6 p/cc Temp: 431000 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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