[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 13 June 22 issued 2331 UT on 13 Jun 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jun 14 09:31:31 EST 2022
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/13 JUNE 2022 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 14 JUNE - 16 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Jun: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M3.4 0407UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Jun: 132/86
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
14 Jun 15 Jun 16 Jun
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 132/86 132/86 132/86
COMMENT: Solar activity on 13 Jun was at the R1 level, with a
long duration M3.4 flare at 0407 UT from AR3032 that was accompanied
by type II and IV radio sweeps. AR3031 produced a C8.5 flare
at 2124 UT. ARs 3032 (N20E34), 3034 (N00E73) and 3035 (S18E77)
appear stable, ARs 3030 (N20E24), 3031 (S20E03) and 3033 (N16E54)
have displayed spot growth. Two small regions have appeared near
S17W41 and S27W00. Solar activity is expected to be at the R0
to R1 levels on 14-16 June. A CME at 13/0312 UT was associated
with the M flare with most of the plasma ejected to the east
although an impact is expected. There was a possible filament
eruption centred near S34W37 at 13/0805 UT that may have been
the origin of a narrow southward CME at 13/1012 UT. The solar
wind speed range on 13 Jun was 435-566 km/s, and is currently
near 450 km/s. The peak total interplanetary magnetic field strength
(Bt) was 13 nT, and the north-south component (Bz) range was
+9/-11 nT, mildly disturbed early in the UT day. The solar wind
is expected to further settle on 14 Jun. The 13 Jun CME is expected
to enhance solar wind conditions from early 15 Jun and into 16
Jun.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Jun: G0
Estimated Indices 13 Jun : A K
Australian Region 5 22221111
Darwin 4 22211111
Learmonth 8 33221222
Alice Springs 4 12211111
Gingin 7 23221122
Canberra 4 22121111
Hobart 5 22221211
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 13 Jun :
Macquarie Island 3 11121111
Casey 13 34322313
Mawson 24 45333353
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 8 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 14
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 9 1212 2332
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
14 Jun 10 G0
15 Jun 37 G0 to G1. Chance of G2.
16 Jun 17 G0 with a slight chance of G1.
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 13 Jun. G0 to G1 conditions were observed in
the Antarctic region. G0 conditions are expected on 14 Jun. G1
with a chance of G2 conditions are expected from early 15 Jun
due to the CME launched on 13 June. Conditions are expected to
settle over 16 Jun, still with a slight chance of an isolated
G1 period.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Jun Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
15 Jun Fair Fair-poor Poor
16 Jun Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
on 14 Jun. Degraded conditions are expected on 15-16 Jun with
the expected arrival of the CME from 13 Jun.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
13 Jun 70
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
May 79
Jun 57
Jul 59
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
14 Jun 75 Near to 25% above predicted monthly values
15 Jun 40 Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed
16 Jun 55 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: SWS SWF HF Communications Warning 47 was issued on 13
June and is current for 13-15 Jun. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 13 Jun were mostly near monthly predicted values.
Spread F was observed during local night hours at mid-latitude
sites. MUFs are expected to be near monthly predicted values
to mildly enhanced on 14 Jun. The expected CME impact on 15 Jun
is likely to degrade communications into 16 Jun with depressions
at times to 20% below predicted monthly values at mid to high
latitudes.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 12 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.0E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B6.3
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Jun
Speed: 459 km/sec Density: 6.6 p/cc Temp: 274000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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