[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 12 June 22 issued 2330 UT on 12 Jun 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jun 13 09:30:48 EST 2022
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/12 JUNE 2022 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 13 JUNE - 15 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Jun: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Jun: 121/73
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
13 Jun 14 Jun 15 Jun
Activity R0,chance R1 R0,chance R1 R0,chance R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 120/72 120/72 125/78
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 12-Jun was at ASWAS R0 level,
with three low level C class flux enhancements observed, the
largest a C2 at 12/2138UT. Whilst solar region AR3030 (N20E38)
has been relatively flare quiet, there has been spot growth apparent
in what is currently considered to be the trailer spots of this
region. As the spot distribution of AR3030 becomes more clear
as it rotates further onto the solar disk, the US Space Weather
Prediction Center advises the region AR3030 may be considered
as in fact two sunspot regions. In addition small spots may have
emerged behind this region. Although overall solar disk R1 and
R3 flare model probabilities are currently quite low, an isolated
low level R1 event is considered possible. Small solar region
AR3031 (S20E18) has been mostly quiet. A very small filament
may have lifted off at N20E55 12/1500UT-1800UT. No Earth directed
CMEs have been observed. The solar wind speed on 12-Jun varied
between 350 and 505km/sec, with wind speed increasing after 12/0755UT,
currently elevated at 440km/sec, due to small coronal holes in
the northern solar hemisphere. The peak total interplanetary
magnetic field strength (IMF, Bt) was 15nT, and the north-south
IMF component (Bz) range was +12 to -10nT. The solar wind is
expected to be mildly enhanced for today, then a gradual declining
trend. An isolated equatorial coronal hole is visible at the
solar central meridian which 27 day recurrence patterns suggest
will elevate the solar wind during the interval 16-19 Jun. A
minor solar region appears to be rotating on to the disk at 20S
and another smaller emission region is visible near the solar
equator on the eastern solar limb.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Jun: G0
Estimated Indices 12 Jun : A K
Australian Region 6 12222221
Darwin 5 12222211
Learmonth 7 12222322
Alice Springs 6 22222221
Gingin 7 12222322
Canberra 4 02122211
Hobart 4 01122211
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 12 Jun :
Macquarie Island 7 00034310
Casey 6 12222221
Mawson 18 53332234
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Hobart 13 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 7 2132 1212
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
13 Jun 9 G0
14 Jun 5 G0
15 Jun 5 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 12-Jun. An isolated G1 period was observed in
the Antarctic region. G0 conditions are generally expected over
13-15 Jun. Active periods are possible 16-19 Jun due to a coronal
hole wind stream.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Jun Normal Normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
14 Jun Normal Normal Normal
15 Jun Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
over 13-15 Jun.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
12 Jun 59
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
May 79
Jun 57
Jul 59
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
13 Jun 60 Near predicted monthly values
14 Jun 60 Near predicted monthly values
15 Jun 60 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 12-Jun were
near monthly predicted values. Spread-F was observed during local
night hours. MUFs are expected to be near monthly predicted values
over 13-15 Jun.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 11 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.9E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.9
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Jun
Speed: 324 km/sec Density: 17.5 p/cc Temp: 33700 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of SWS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list