[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 07 February 22 issued 2331 UT on 07 Feb 2022

Tue Feb 8 10:31:27 EST 2022

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/07 FEBRUARY 2022 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 08 FEBRUARY - 10 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Feb:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Feb: 127/80

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             08 Feb             09 Feb             10 Feb
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   125/78             122/75             120/72

COMMENT: Solar activity was low on UT day 7-Feb, with low-level 
C flares from regions 2939 (S16W25) and 2941 (N22E26). There 
are four regions on the disc. Region 2942 (S11W76) will rotate 
off the disc tomorrow. Solar activity is expected to be low on 
8-10 Feb with a small chance of M-class flares. The solar wind 
speed has declined to around 460 km/s. The peak total interplanetary 
magnetic field (IMF) strength was 4 nT. The north-south IMF (Bz) 
range was +/-3 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to continue 
declining until CME impacts during the second half of 9-Feb cause 
another disturbance.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Feb: Quiet

Estimated Indices 07 Feb : A   K           
   Australian Region       4   21111211
      Darwin               3   11110212
      Townsville           4   21111211
      Learmonth            5   21121222
      Alice Springs        3   21010211
      Gingin               4   21011222
      Canberra             1   11010101
      Hobart               5   22121211    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 07 Feb :
      Macquarie Island     5   22121310
      Casey               13   34332322
      Mawson              22   53322354

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Feb : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               2   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             10   3333 3222     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
08 Feb     7    Quiet
09 Feb    20    Quiet to Minor Storm
10 Feb    20    Active to Minor Storm

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region were 
quiet on UT day 7-Feb. Conditions were at quiet to major storm 
levels at southern high latitudes. Geomagnetic conditions are 
expected to be mostly quiet on 8-Feb and into 9-Feb. An expected 
coronal mass ejection arriving in the second half of 9-Feb could 
cause active to minor storm levels into 10-Feb.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal
09 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal
10 Feb      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair

COMMENT: Normal conditions are expected for 8-9 Feb, with degradations 
at higher latitudes on 10-Feb as a result of expected geomagnetic 
activity.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
07 Feb    62

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 40% during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jan      46
Feb      38
Mar      41

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
08 Feb    50    Near predicted monthly values to enhanced
09 Feb    50    Near predicted monthly values to enhanced
10 Feb    30    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                15%

COMMENT: Frequencies were near predicted monthly values to enhanced 
on 7-Feb. Similar conditions are expected for 8-9 Feb, with mild 
depressions possible on 10-Feb due to expected geomagnetic activity.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 06 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.7E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:14%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B6.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Feb
Speed: 543 km/sec  Density:   10.3 p/cc  Temp:   448000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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