[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 06 February 22 issued 2331 UT on 06 Feb 2022
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Feb 7 10:31:12 EST 2022
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/06 FEBRUARY 2022 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 07 FEBRUARY - 09 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Feb: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Feb: 124/77
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
07 Feb 08 Feb 09 Feb
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 122/75 120/72 120/72
COMMENT: Solar activity was low on UT day 06 February, with low
C flares from regions 2936 and 2939. There are four regions on
the disc. Region 2938 will rotate off the disc today. Region
2939 (S16W10, Hhx/alpha) has developed some minor trailer spots,
some minor growth and decay has occurred in 2940 (N18W16, Cao/beta),
and 2941 (N24E51, Dao/beta) is mostly stable. Region 2942 (S11W61)
has been numbered. Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate
on 07-09 February. There were filament eruptions at ~06/0929
UT near S37E45 and another at ~06/1230 UT centred near S14W04
UT. The latter eruption was associated with a C3.1 flare at 1341
UT from region 2939. Both these filaments resulted in coronal
mass ejections that are likely to be geoeffective. Initial analysis
indicates arrival at Earth in the first half of 10 February.
The solar wind speed trended lower from around 610 km/s at the
start of 06 February to around 530 km/s. The peak total interplanetary
magnetic field (IMF) strength was 6 nT. The north-south IMF (Bz)
range was +/-5 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to remain
mildly elevated over 07 February, returning to near nominal levels
on 08 February.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Feb: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 06 Feb : A K
Australian Region 8 22233112
Darwin 8 22233112
Townsville 8 22233112
Learmonth 11 32234222
Alice Springs 8 22233112
Gingin 11 32234222
Canberra 5 11232011
Hobart 9 22333121
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 06 Feb :
Macquarie Island 18 32355121
Casey 32 56544232
Mawson 38 35434366
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Feb :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 21 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Hobart 33 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 17
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 10 2323 2232
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
07 Feb 10 Quiet to Unsettled
08 Feb 7 Quiet
09 Feb 10 Quiet. Chance of active to minor storm period
late.
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region were
mostly quiet to unsettled on UT day 06 February. Conditions were
at quiet to major storm levels at southern high latitudes. Geomagnetic
conditions are expected to be quiet to unsettled on 07 February
and mostly quiet on 08-09 February. An expected coronal mass
ejection may arrive in the second half 09 February UT causing
active to minor storm levels.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Feb Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
08 Feb Normal Normal Normal
09 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Normal conditions are expected on 07-09 February. Chance
of shortwave fadeouts on daylight HF circuits over the next few
days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
06 Feb 50
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 40% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan 46
Feb 38
Mar 41
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
07 Feb 60 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
08 Feb 60 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
09 Feb 60 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Frequencies were near predicted monthly values to enhanced
on 06 February. Sporadic E was observed at Learmonth 08-16 UT,
Townsville 04-06, 16-18 UT, Hobart 23 UT and Norfolk Is. 00-03,
23 UT. Frequencies are expected to be near predicted monthly
values to enhanced 07-09 UT. Chance of shortwave fadeouts on
daylight HF circuits over the next few days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 05 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.3E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.00E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:10%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.9
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Feb
Speed: 535 km/sec Density: 9.5 p/cc Temp: 320000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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