[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 13 August 22 issued 2330 UT on 13 Aug 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Aug 14 09:30:50 EST 2022
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/13 AUGUST 2022 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 14 AUGUST - 16 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Aug: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Aug: 124/77
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
14 Aug 15 Aug 16 Aug
Activity R0, chance of R1 R0, chance of R1 R0, chance of R1
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 122/75 122/75 121/731A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Aug: Low
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 13-Aug was at the R0 level,
with several C-class flares. There are currently eight numbered
sunspot regions visible on the solar disk. AR3079 (S10W27, beta)
and AR3081 (N12E42, beta) have shown spot development over the
24 hour period. AR3079 was also responsible for the largest C-class
flares. All other sunspot regions are either stable or in decay.
Solar activity is expected to be at the R0 level over 14-16 Aug,
with a chance of R1. A southward CME is visible in LASCO C2 and
STEREO-A imagery from 13/1848UT. An eruption is visible in GOES
SUVI imagery from 13/1527UT around S30E27, associated with AR3078
(S26E22, beta). Modelling indicates this CME has a geoeffective
component which will impact Earth with a glancing blow on 17-Aug.
No other geoeffective CMEs have been observed in available imagery.
The solar wind speed on UT day 13-Aug declined as the effects
of a coronal hole high speed wind stream waned, ranging from
489 to 568 km/s, and is currently near 510 km/s. The peak total
interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 7 nT, and the north-south
IMF component (Bz) range was +5 to -5 nT. The solar wind speed
is expected to decrease over 14-15 Aug as coronal hole high speed
wind stream effects abate. The solar wind speed is expected to
increase on 16-Aug due to the effects of a high speed wind stream
from an equatorial coronal hole which is expected to rotate into
a geoeffective position.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Aug: G0
Estimated Indices 13 Aug : A K
Australian Region 6 12122321
Darwin 5 12122221
Learmonth 7 12222322
Alice Springs 5 12122221
Gingin 6 11221322
Canberra 4 11121221
Hobart 5 11121321
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 13 Aug :
Macquarie Island 10 00134430
Casey 12 24333222
Mawson 33 44445336
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 9
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 8 3123 2222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
14 Aug 5 G0
15 Aug 5 G0
16 Aug 8 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 13-Aug. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Antarctic region, with periods of G1 at Mawson.
G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected over 14-16 Aug, with a
chance of mildly disturbed geomagnetic conditions on 16-Aug due
to coronal hole high speed wind stream effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Aug Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Aug Normal Normal Normal
15 Aug Normal Normal Normal
16 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected on 14-16 Aug.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
13 Aug 54
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 65
Aug 67
Sep 68
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
14 Aug 60 Near predicted monthly values
15 Aug 60 Near predicted monthly values
16 Aug 60 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: SWS SWF HF Communications Warning 58 was issued on 13
August and is current for 13-14 Aug. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 13-Aug were mostly near predicted monthly values,
with mildly depressed conditions in the Northern Australian region
during local night. Spread-F was observed in the Australian region
during local night. MUFs are expected to be mostly near predicted
monthly values over 14-16 Aug.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 12 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.7E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.10E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:16%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.2
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Aug
Speed: 567 km/sec Density: 4.7 p/cc Temp: 225000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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