[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 11 August 22 issued 2330 UT on 11 Aug 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Aug 12 09:30:49 EST 2022
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/11 AUGUST 2022 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 12 AUGUST - 14 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Aug: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Aug: 115/66
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
12 Aug 13 Aug 14 Aug
Activity R0 R0 R0
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 115/66 115/66 115/66
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 11-Aug was at the R0 level,
with no significant flaring activity. There are currently five
numbered sunspot regions visible on the solar disk. AR3077 (S18W32,
beta) is the most magnetically complex region and has exhibited
minor spot growth. AR3076 (N15E21, alpha) has shown growth in
its trailer spots. A new unnumbered sunspot region recently appeared
on the solar disk at S14E03 and has shown spot development. All
other sunspot regions are stable. Solar activity is expected
to be at the R0 level over 12-14 Aug. No Earth-directed CMEs
have been observed. The solar wind speed on UT day 11-Aug was
elevated due to coronal hole high speed wind stream effects,
ranging from 530 to 590 km/s, and is currently near 555 km/s.
The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 10
nT, and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +3 to -7
nT. A period of southward IMF conditions was observed from 11/1525UT
to 11/1930UT. The solar wind speed is expected to decrease over
12-14 Aug as coronal hole high speed wind stream effects abate.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Aug: G1
Estimated Indices 11 Aug : A K
Australian Region 15 22243442
Darwin 11 22232342
Learmonth 16 22233542
Alice Springs 13 22242342
Gingin 19 22243543
Canberra 16 22253342
Hobart 18 22253442
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 11 Aug :
Macquarie Island 30 21364642
Casey 14 33332342
Mawson 58 55433485
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 15 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 22
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 12 2312 3242
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
12 Aug 14 G0, slight chance G1
13 Aug 8 G0
14 Aug 5 G0
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 37 was issued on 9 August and
is current for 10-12 Aug. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Australian region on UT day 11-Aug, with isolated
periods of G1 observed at several sites. G1-G2 geomagnetic conditions
were observed in the Antarctic region, with an isolated period
of G4 at Mawson. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected over
12-14 Aug, with a slight chance of G1 on 12-Aug due to ongoing
coronal hole high speed wind stream effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Aug Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
13 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
14 Aug Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected on 12-14 Aug,
with mild degradations possible for high latitudes on 12-Aug
due to coronal hole high speed wind stream effects.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
11 Aug 53
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 65
Aug 67
Sep 68
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
12 Aug 55 Near predicted monthly values
13 Aug 55 Near predicted monthly values
14 Aug 55 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 11-Aug were
mostly near predicted monthly values. Spread-F was observed in
Hobart and Townsville. MUFs are expected to be mostly near predicted
monthly values over 12-14 Aug, with mild degradations possible
on 12-Aug due to increased geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 10 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.8E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.20E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:19%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.5
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Aug
Speed: 583 km/sec Density: 10.8 p/cc Temp: 867000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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