[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 10 August 22 issued 2330 UT on 10 Aug 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Aug 11 09:30:58 EST 2022
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/10 AUGUST 2022 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 11 AUGUST - 13 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Aug: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Aug: 108/58
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
11 Aug 12 Aug 13 Aug
Activity R0 R0 R0
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 105/54 105/54 105/54
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 10-Aug was at the R0 level,
with no significant flaring activity. There are currently five
numbered sunspot regions visible on the solar disk. AR3077 (S18W19,
beta) is the most magnetically complex region and has shown some
decay. AR3078 (S21E53, alpha) has recently rotated onto the solar
disk and appears stable. All other sunspot regions are stable.
Solar activity is expected to be at the R0 level over 11-13 Aug.
No Earth-directed CMEs have been observed. The solar wind speed
on UT day 10-Aug was elevated due to coronal hole high speed
wind stream effects, ranging from 540 to 620 km/s, and is currently
near 575 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF,
Bt) was 6 nT, and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was
+5 to -5 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to remain elevated
over 11-13 Aug due to ongoing coronal hole high speed wind stream
effects, with a declining trend possible from 12-Aug.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Aug: G0
Estimated Indices 10 Aug : A K
Australian Region 11 23233322
Darwin 10 23223322
Learmonth 12 23333322
Alice Springs 9 13223322
Gingin 14 23333423
Canberra 11 -3223323
Hobart 10 23133322
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 10 Aug :
Macquarie Island 19 13144452
Casey 20 45423233
Mawson 43 36443466
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 25 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 59 (Unsettled)
Hobart 99 (Minor storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 13
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 21 3534 4433
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
11 Aug 14 G0, slight chance G1
12 Aug 10 G0
13 Aug 8 G0
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 37 was issued on 9 August and
is current for 10-12 Aug. G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Australian region on UT day 10-Aug. Mostly G0 geomagnetic
conditions were observed in the Antarctic region, with an isolated
period of G1 at Macquarie Island and isolated periods of G2 at
Mawson. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected over 11-13 Aug,
with a slight chance of G1 on 11-Aug due to ongoing coronal hole
high speed wind stream effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Aug Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
12 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
13 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected on 11-13 Aug,
with mild degradations possible for high latitudes on 11-Aug
due to coronal hole high speed wind stream effects.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
10 Aug 51
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Depressed by 40% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 65
Aug 67
Sep 68
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
11 Aug 50 Near predicted monthly values
12 Aug 50 Near predicted monthly values
13 Aug 50 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 10-Aug were
mostly near predicted monthly values. Spread-F was observed in
Brisbane, Perth and Townsville. MUFs are expected to be mostly
near predicted monthly values over 11-13 Aug, with mild degradations
possible on 11-Aug due to increased geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 09 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.1E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.10E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:16%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.5
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Aug
Speed: 573 km/sec Density: 9.1 p/cc Temp: 543000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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